I don't know about you, but this market is exhausting. I cannot become accustomed to the swift pullbacks, followed by stellar runs to the upside that recover all of the losses in just a few trading sessions. This last one is another extreme case; SPX lost $102, or 5%, in 7 trading sessions, and then recovered nearly all of that loss in just three sessions! SPX closed today at $2071, up $9, and just shy of where the pullback started only two weeks ago. RUT closed up $4 at $1196. RUT is still trying to recover its losses from the March highs around $1210. RUT has traded weaker than SPX most of this year, but it actually provided the early signals of a recovery this week, posting a gain on Tuesday while SPX was still trading downward. Volatility peaked on Tuesday, with the VIX spiking up over 25% intraday. The VIX closed today at 16.5%, down 0.3 points.
The sharp reversal this week cost me in my January iron condor on SPX. Insurance is never free in this business, but the quick market reversal cost me as I closed my February call options that were hedging my January position. The January condor retains a profit potential of about +6.5% and is well positioned with the 2160/2170 call spreads well OTM. The original potential gain was 17%, so the insurance was costly, but it worked. We are still in the game and have salvaged the trade.
SPX settled today at 2061.01 (RUT settled at $1191.29). My SPX Dec 1940/1950 and 2100/2110 spreads expired worthless. I closed the 2080/2090 call spreads yesterday. They stood 1.7 standard deviations OTM, so the probabilities were definitely on my side. But we have been witnessing some large gap opens to the upside this week. I decided the risk wasn't worth it. Call me a wimp, but I have the scars to show what happens sometimes if you venture out there too far. This closes my SPX December position for a gain of 5.8%. Similar to the January position, December's profitability was reduced by the hedging efforts on the upside as the market ran higher after the October pullback.
I keep a spreadsheet with the difference between Thursday's closing price and Friday's settlement price for SPX and RUT for 2006 through 2014 (I will upload it to my website in the free downloads section). The averages for 2014 for SPX and RUT are $8.74 and $6.14, respectively.
Hard to believe that 2014 is coming to an end. It seems like I just trained myself to write 2014 instead of 2013. But then, you know what they say about old dogs...
Another "V" Recovery!
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