Markets continue to steadily move higher, albeit on weak trading volume. SPX closed at $2097, down $2. What, not another all-time high? RUT was flat at $1228. The NASDAQ composite is nearing a break of the all-time high from back in the dot com era. Volatility continues to slowly contract (with one eye on Greece, I think) with the VIX closing at 15.3%, down 0.2 points. Take a look at the candlesticks for the last three days of trading on SPX. Each day SPX has pulled back to $2090, but then bounced to close higher. These long lower shadows of the candlesticks are confirming support at $2090. The markets aren't running full out to the upside, but there is slow, steady bullish pressure.
New unemployment claims dropped down to 283k from last week's 304k, but the number of continuing unemployment claims rose from 2.367 million to 2.425 million. We have been seeing a series of small ups and small downs in this data for several months; the good news is the stability; the bad news is that unemployment seems so stubborn in this recession. What's different this time?
The Philadelphia survey of manufacturing dropped from 6.3 in January to 5.2 for February.
I allowed my RUT Feb 1070/1080 puts to go into expiration to expire worthless. They are over 12 standard deviations OTM; assuming the world doesn't end tonight, this will close the Feb position for a gain of 18%. The March condor on RUT at 1020/1030 and 1290/1300 stands at break-even.
It is interesting to watch the Greek/Euro Zone debt debate. Our national debt now stands at 74% of GDP. It was 34% in 2007. When the Greeks first required a bail-out, their debt was about 110% of their GDP.
The Slow Grind Higher
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