From watching the markets trade today, one would think all is well with the world. Whatever was ailing China's market last week is all gone? This may be easier when the government can simply tell traders not to sell stocks, but has the basic economic picture changed? The Greek debt crisis is thought to be over, but the Greek parliament has to agree to a tougher deal than what was offered before Tsipras backed out of negotiations and called for the referendum. So is this the last we hear of Greek debt? Notably, the yield on Greek treasuries is higher now than before the deal. Hmmm. My point is simple: remain cautious.
SPX gained $23 to close at $2100 while RUT gained $13, closing at $1265. The VIX shed almost three points, closing at 14.1%. SPX closed right at its 50 dma - quite a turnaround for an index that was trading below its 200 dma at the open Friday. Significantly, trading volume was light with 1.8 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading. Trading on the NYSE was up 1% and trading on NASDAQ increased 5%. Rather than declaring that the bulls are back in charge, I think it safer to say we are firmly back within the trading range.
We have several important earnings announcements this week that will influence traders' moods. JP Morgan Chase reports in the morning and Wells Fargo reports tomorrow evening; Goldman Sachs will report Thursday morning. And, of course, we have several earnings announcements that always draw a lot of speculation and trading: Netflix, Google, and Yahoo.
All Clear?
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