The markets continue to just ebb back and forth, as though waiting on something to happen. The minutes from the last FOMC meeting will be released tomorrow. Perhaps that will push the market one way or the other, but I doubt it. The Fed rarely gives a definitive peek of the future; they have to keep their cards close to the chest. SPX closed at $2097, down $6, and RUT lost $10 to close at $2115. Volatility increased a bit with the VIX closing at 13.8%, up almost one point. Trading volume remains pretty flat with 1.7 billion shares of the S&P 500 companies trading, but this is well below the 50 dma at 2.1B. Trading on the NYSE increased 3% but trading was down 1% on NASDAQ.
Housing starts came in at an annualized rate of 1.206 million for July, the highest since 2009. Building permits followed suit at 1.119 million.
I took a look at the price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 companies today; it is running around 21, which is on the high side, but well below the highs around 30 from the dot com bubble. When one adjusts the data based on relative yields, the low interest rates make stocks look more attractive, so maybe the P/E ratio isn't too high after all.
I am inclined to believe the overall market is treading water in advance of news from the Fed about interest rates. In any case, the longer we trade sideways, the more likely we remain in a long term bull market that is just taking a breather. The bulls continue to repel any moves to push this market lower.
Waiting on the Fed?
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