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I entered the VIX trade this morning for our trading group based on two recent data points.

One was seeing VIX hit a high yesterday very close to the high reached during the 2008 financial crisis.

Two was an article I read this morning. Here is the link.

Dr. Ioannidis, an epidemiologist from Stanford points out the critical errors being made in the analysis of the infection date for coronavirus and the extreme responses from WHO, CDC and the media coverage. The main points:

The current mortality rate for ordinary flu so far this season is 0.6%.

The widely publicized mortality rates for coronavirus are exaggerated simply because of how few people have been tested and the fact that the ones being tested are largely the elderly who are most susceptible and therefore seeking medical assistance.

He maintains that the Diamond Princess cruise ship is the best set of data to date, in effect, a limited "test tube", resulting in seven deaths from 700 infected crew and passengers, or a 1% mortality rate. But the demographics of the passengers are predominantly the older members of our population who are most susceptible to not only this virus but also the ordinary flu virus. When he adjusted that data to match the demographics of the U.S. population, the mortality rate is estimated to be in the range of 0.03% to 0.6%. Adding uncertainties such as passengers dying later from their infections or the possibility that the number of underlying chronic health issues may have been higher in this data set, he adjusted his estimate of the mortality rate for the general population in the U.S. to 0.05% to 1%. Contrast that with the WHO mortality rate of 3.4%.

When you count the financial costs we are incurring, the cure is worse than the disease.