The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) closed today at 6026, down 58 points, nearly one percent. SPX opened the week at 5970, +0.9% for the week. It is interesting to note the pattern: each of the three Fridays traded up to the all-time high of 6100 on 12/06. It broke through on 1/24 but fell short on 1/31 and again today. Trading volume was barely above the 50-day moving average (dma) this week.

VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, opened the week at 20.4% and moved lower, closing Thursday at 15.5% but then gained one point to close today at 16.5%.

I track the Russell 2000 index with the IWM ETF, which closed today at 226, down nearly three points or -1.2%. IWM opened the week at 222 for a weekly gain of 1.8%. IWM trading volume spiked above the 50 dma Monday and today. The Russell 2000 isn't leading the market higher or lower.

The NASDAQ Composite index closed today at 19,523, down 269 points or 
-1.4%. NASDAQ opened the week at 19,215, setting up a weekly gain of 1.6%. NASDAQ’s trading volume rose above the 50 dma on Monday, but ran well below average the balance of the week.

The markets have been very choppy this year, with the S&P index making strong runs for a few days, then giving it all back and then repeating the process. That makes it very difficult for traders to lock in gains, unless you are a day trader. I think this choppiness is principally due to three factors:

• The ultimate economic effect of Trump’s tariff threats,



• Federal reserve discount rate changes, and



• The economic fallout of the global AI competition.

All of these three issues may have significant economic effects, and the market is largely clueless which way it might go. The new administration is moving at record speed and that thrills some but terrifies others, especially those who have been benefiting from federal grants.

The FOMC is remaining calm and deliberate and clearly does not want to release the brakes too quickly.

The effect of DeepSeek has certainly gotten the world’s attention, and especially our own high-tech companies, who may have assumed their only competition was within their exclusive “club”.

The ultimate impacts of all of the above are largely unknown at this time and that has the market spooked. It does not like uncertainty. That foretells a rough ride for those of us who actively trade the markets. Be cautious and be nimble. "Hold and hope" may be especially dangerous to your financial health.