Today's markets generally traded sideways just above and below the unchanged line until the last hour of trading when a strong rally carried the SPX to a gain for the day and RUT to the unchanged mark. RUT closed at $618, a drop of less than a dollar on the day, but RUT traded as low as $607 and as high as $624. SPX closed for a $12 gain at $1062. SPX traded down to $1042, which was approximately the low point set in February of this year and again on May 25. But two data points don't make much of a support line, so saying SPX has found support may be a stretch. If you look at the intraday extremes of $1220 in April and $1040 on May 25, the SPX has corrected 15%. Many market analysts use 15% as the "line in the sand"; a drop of 10-15% is a normal correction in a bull market; When the market drops more than 15%, it often is the beginning of a bear market trend. But seeing the market rally late in the day and close near its highs was certainly a refreshing change.
Trading volume increased today with a 14% increase on the NYSE and a 21% increase on NASDAQ; over 5.1 billion shares of the S&P 500 changed hands today, an increase from yesterday and above the 50 day moving average. So we closed at session highs on higher volume. That seems positive but I am almost afraid to have hope at this point.
My June RUT iron condor is still weak but alive; the P/L stands at -$2500 with position delta = +$45, and position theta = +$107. The July condor continues to be close to the breakeven point with position delta = +$40, and position theta = +$65. Further moves down will necessitate an adjustment in the July position. The July $530 puts have a delta of 16. You can also see that this position is "on the edge" by the fact that the theta/delta ratio is about 1.5 to one. By any measure, this is a nervous market, so even today's strong close doesn't inspire much confidence. After all, it was one more triple digit move on the Dow; we could easily have a triple digit move downward tomorrow - it would be nice to have some slow, meandering days in the market.
Closing Near The Highs - That's Odd!
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