The markets were pleasantly surprised by the nonfarm payroll data this morning. The loss of 54 thousand jobs was greeted positively because the street was expecting worse news; the unemployment rate rose slightly to 9.6% but that wasn't regarded as a significant change. The markets opened strongly on this news and ran up until mid-morning when the ISM Service Index reported out at 51.5 while 53.0 was expected. The markets pulled back sharply but then slowly recovered throughout the day to close near or at the highs for the day. The SPX blew through resistance at $1100, then pulled back, but then closed at $1105, up $14 for the day. RUT behaved similarly, closing at $643, up $11. All in all, it was a bullish day in the markets with the exception of weak trading volume. Trading volume of the S&P 500 stocks dropped to 3 billion shares while trading on the NYSE and the NASDAQ both declined 1%.
My condors stand approximately where they were yesterday; the Sept condor is up $2,290 with delta = +$2 and theta = +70. My Oct condor stands at a P/L of -$520, delta = -$99 and theta = +$65. When the market opened so strongly this morning, I hedged the Oct condor, but then I took the hedge off when RUT pulled back so strongly. Of course, by the end of the day, I should have had that hedge in place - the classic whipsaw.
All the signs for the past three days have been very bullish - the market appears to have significantly changed its mood. Even mediocre economic news is now being regarded positively - a big change from several weeks ago. What happens on Tuesday when everyone returns from the holiday weekend? Will the bulls remain in control?
The Rally Continues
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