The markets surprised many of us with a very strong performance in January. Then we expected it to pull back in early February, but it didn't. We thought SPX couldn't break through $1330, but it did. Now, for the past several sessions, the markets open weak and trade lower. But in every case, the bulls trade it back up and close the day roughly even or for a slight increase. The bears just cannot generate any lasting case for their position. Many technical indicators support the "overbought" case, but the market just grinds higher. In the meantime, the Greek drama continues to unfold. But it appears that the stranglehold that the European debt crisis once held on the markets is loosening and may be gone altogether. If Greece defaults, it will be an interesting test of that theory. SPX gained $2 to close at $1352 and RUT closed down $3 at $825. Trading volume is holding steady with 3.1 billion shares of the S&P 500 (the 50 dma is at 2.9B). Trading volume on the NYSE was down 1% and trading volume was up 9% on NASDAQ.
The VIX closed up a bit for the second day in succession while the market was making modest gains. This may be an aberration, but it is worth watching. VIX closed at $18.6%, up about half of a point. Initial unemployment claims decreased to 358k from last week's 373k and continuing unemployment claims stand at 3.5 million.
My Feb RUT iron condor position stands at a P/L of +$140 with position delta = -$93 and theta = +$377 (20 contracts). This position is squeezed a little tightly on the call spread side, but time is now working in our favor. The Mar position is $1,800 underwater with delta = -$21 and theta = +$85. Both positions have strong theta/delta ratios.
Where Are the Bears?
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- Written by Dr. Duke
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