The markets appeared to falter this morning, but then the bulls took charge and kept control through the close with markets closing near their highs for the day. SPX closed at $1324, up $15 after trading as low as $1307. RUT closed up $11 at $762. Trading volume was flat with 2.5 billion shares of the S&P 500. Volume on the NYSE was down 2% while trading volume on NASDAQ was up 7%. It appears that the resistance level to watch is around $1335 on SPX and the "falling out of bed" number is around $1275. For now, it isn't apparent which direction the market is headed. VIX dropped down almost two points to close at 22%, but that is still fairly high, suggesting a fair amount of tension in the markets at this point.
The main focus of traders appears to still be Europe and the developments there do not appear to be reaching any kind of definitive end. If traders are waiting for an "end" to the debt crisis in Europe, they will be waiting for quite a while. Will the next round of earnings announcements be a distraction? Or will the next earnings disappointment "pile on" to Europe and take the market south? Or will the Greek elections provide the catalyst for the big move downward?
My June iron condor is just about played out with a net gain of $1,840, delta = +$10 and theta = +$125. The maximum gain if both spreads expire worthless is $1,940 or 11% on the capital at risk. The July condor stands at +$1,660 with delta = -$18 and theta = +$56.
Perhaps the market is basically treading water until after the Greek election results? Should we close our positions this week? We should at least hedge any trades that are on the edge because next week could see some big moves.
The Volatility Continues
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