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The markets reacted positively to the ISM manufacturing index reading of 50.6 for August, essentially flat from July's 50.9. But those gains couldn't hold as traders looked forward to the jobs report tomorrow. SPX dropped $14 to close at $1204 on lower volume of 3.1 billion shares. RUT lost $18 to close at $709. Trading volume also dropped on the NYSE (-10%) and on NASDAQ (-13%).
Both yesterday and today SPX tried to break through $1230 but couldn't make it. This isn't very bullish behavior; we are still well below the 50 dma at $1255 which will likely provide stronger resistance. Traditionally, breaking through the 50 dma strongly in either direction is a strong signal for the continuation of that trend, whereas bouncing off the 50 dma is often the sign of a reversal or a sideways consolidation period. Many market analysts are watching for signs of a possible drop to re-test the lows in August. Thus, SPX's behavior at $1230 and at the 50 dma will be closely watched. As today's trading session drew to a close, traders were paring back on positions ahead of tomorrow's non-farm payroll report, aka, the jobs report.
My RUT Sept iron condor position stands at a P/L of +$824 with delta = -$11 and theta = +$162. The Oct condor remains hedged and stands at a P/L of -$2,130 with delta = -$10 and theta= +$48. The jobs report in the morning will likely create a bout of market volatility in the opening hour of trading - don't jump either way too quickly.
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Markets were a bit weak today, but managed to tack on small gains. SPX gained $3 to close at $1213 and RUT closed at $728, up $3. Trading volume increased a bit with 3.1 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading, still below the 50 dma at 3.6B; trading volume was up 13% on the NYSE and was up 15% on NASDAQ. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index plunged to 44.5, the lowest reading since April of 2009. But that didn't seem to weigh on the markets very much. The FOMC minutes didn't seem to make much of an impact on trading, but the extraordinary disagreement within the committee was widely discussed.
Both SPX and RUT have now closed solidly above the highs reached a couple of weeks ago as the markets last rallied, before crashing down to re-test the early August lows. But we are still a long ways from a recovery. But so far, the market is showing reasonable resilience to bad news such as today's consumer confidence data.
My Sept iron condor stands at a P/L of -$876 with delta = -$92 and theta = +$205. The Oct condor is hedged and stands at a P/L of -$2900 with delta = -$6 and theta = +$39.
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The markets appeared to react negatively this morning to the downward revision of second quarter GDP as much or more than to Bernanke's remarks in Jackson Hole. But those bearish traders didn't hold sway for long; the market bounced back strongly with the SPX rising over $18 to close at $1177. RUT increased $17 to close at $692. Today's strong market was a bit surprising, given all of the bearish talk all week about Europe and the need for Bernanke to propose some kind of stimulus for the economy. The VIX spiked up to 44% this morning, but then pulled back to close at 36%. Trading volume in the S&P 500 declined to 3.4 billion shares, below the 50 dma. Trading on the NYSE was down 6% and volume was up 3% on NASDAQ.
Recent market action appears to be confirming the lows of $1120 on SPX and $650 on RUT as the bottom of this correction. But it may be early to be too sure of any conclusions here. It is a long climb back out of this hole to start talking about resumption of a bullish trend.
My Sept iron condor on RUT at 600/610 and 780/790 stands at a P/L of -$216 with delta = +$24 and theta = +$117 (20 contracts). In the course of the strong market swings of the past few weeks, I ended up with another Sept iron condor on RUT at 560/570 and 780/790; it stands at a P/L of +$1,820 with delta = +$4 and theta = +$107 (20 contracts). It may be tempting to start buying selectively at this point, but be cautious - this is a very nervous market. I strongly prefer my delta neutral trades in this environment.
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The severity of hurricane Irene was less than hyped by the media - have you noticed how everything is breathlessly covered as another "sky is falling" event? Remember the upcoming U.S. debt default? A couple of years ago we were warned that swine flu would not lead to an epidemic but a pandemic!!
The prospect of less damage than expected started a market rally this morning that surprised me by sustaining itself throughout the day. I expected some profit taking to slow it down a bit, but markets traded steadily stronger all day, closing at or near highs for the day. SPX closed at $1210. This broke through the highs set around $1205 in mid-August as the market tried to rebound. RUT closed up $33 at $725, also breaking through the high around $720 set in mid-August before the markets collapsed once again. However, trading volume was low with 2.7 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading today; the 50 dma is 3.6B. Trading on the NYSE was down 20% and trading volume was down 13% on NASDAQ. Maybe everyone stayed home, expecting Manhattan to be underwater.
Many technical experts are warning us that this rally could be short lived and exhibit a re-test of the recent lows within the next month. To be sure, we are in a deep hole. SPX would have to break through $1260 just to return to the trading range of March through July and break even for the year. And SPX will have to break $1365 to reach new highs for 2011. That's a long ways from here. It is natural to be optimistic and hopeful that the bullish rally will resume, but a review of the damage in August is a bit daunting.
My Sept iron condor on RUT stands at a P/L of -$536 with delta = -$55 and theta = +$214. My Oct iron condor on RUT at 500/510 and 770/780 is hedged with Nov $770 calls and stands at a P/L of -$2,460 with delta = -$13 and theta = +$32. Both positions consist of twenty contracts. Assuming all the traders return tomorrow, will they take some profits? There are many bargains in stocks out there, but pick carefully and proceed slowly.
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The markets opened up positively this morning but immediately began to sink and all of the major market indexes closed down for the day. SPX closed at $1159, down $18 and RUT also lost $18 to close at $674. Trading volume in the S&P 500 was up a little at 4.1 billion shares; trading was up 7% on the NYSE and was down 4% on NASDAQ. All anyone could talk about today was Bernanke's speech tomorrow and the effect of Steve Jobs leaving Apple. Apple's stock recovered much of its early losses, so it appears the market isn't too concerned about Apple's pipeline of products. The common opinion on the street is that Bernanke won't commit to anything tomorrow. One has to wonder if today's sell off is simply pricing in a "no comment" speech tomorrow. The bigger question is what has been worrying many traders: is this August collapse a severe market correction or the beginning of a bearish trend?
My Sept RUT condor stands at a P/L of -$474 with delta = -$17 and theta = +$44. I had to hedge it again today on the put side just in case Bernanke's comment rattle the market - this is a very nervous market. Rumors send traders running for the exits. Everyone has been so busy speculating about Bernanke's speech, that this may be the classic, "it's baked in the price" situation and we end up with minimal market movement tomorrow. But I hedged my condor anyway - risk management is the key to success, not reading the tea leaves.
