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Today was a slow day for economic data and the markets traded modestly higher on lower volume. All of the major indexes, except for the Dow, posted gains today. SPX closed at $1332, up $3 and the RUT tacked on $4 to close at $826. Both were new 52 week highs for these indexes. Trading volume was down from Friday with 2.9 billion shares of the S&P 500; volume dropped 14% on the NYSE and declined 5% on NASDAQ.
My RUT Mar condor at 690/700 and 875/885 stands at a P/L of +$300 with a position delta = -$70 and position theta = +$93. My other Mar condor on RUT at 730/740 and 860/870 stands at a P/L = -$160 and delta = -$104 and theta = +$127. I will need to reposition these condors soon if this market continues its trend higher.
Don't forget your Valentine...
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Mubarak's resignation boosted markets to new multi-year highs. SPX closed up $7 to $1329 while RUT closed at $822, up $9. RUT has not been at this level since October 2007. But trading volume dropped off from yesterday's highs. Trading in the S&P 500 dropped below the 50 dma to 3.3 billion; volume dropped by 7% on the NYSE and decreased 18% on NASDAQ. Volatility dropped to 15.7%, close to the lows of mid-January and late December. The bull market in equities has been fueled by the Fed and shifts of capital out of the bond market back into equities. The rise of commodity prices will eventually take its toll on corporate profits and eventually the FOMC will start to increase interest rates. But the street is littered with the bodies of traders who have tried to short this market. It is hard to argue with the logic of a correction being overdue, but so far this market just shrugs off bad news. Egypt is an excellent example; the situation in Egypt is far from resolved, but the market has continued to drive higher.
My Mar RUT iron condor stands at a P/L of +$260,with a position delta of -$59 and position theta = +$95. I established a second Mar condor for RUT earlier this week at 730/740 and 860/870, and that position now stands at break-even with delta = -$87 and theta = +$122. Both of these positions are beginning to be squeezed by this bull market. We'll see what next week brings.
Enjoy the weekend.
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The Dow was the only major index to post a gain today; the broader indexes all posted small losses. Markets opened up slightly down, attempted to move into positive territory by late morning, but then chopped sideways and lower the rest of the day. SPX closed down $4 at $1325 and RUT closed at $814, down $4 on the day. It appeared the markets were looking for something new from Bernanke's testimony before Congress, but nothing new was revealed, and it didn't appear to have much of an effect on the markets. Trading volume was up slightly with 3.1 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading today; this is still well below the 50 dma at 3.5 billion shares. Trading on the NYSE was up 6% and volume was up 6% on NASDAQ as well. Volatility jumped at the open but settled down to close under 16% at the close.
My Mar condor on RUT stands at a small gain of $140 with a position delta of -$37 and position theta = +$97. Is the market just pausing a bit or is the correction around the corner? It seems like too many analysts are preaching "correction" for that to actually occur. I trade both directionally and non-directionally, but one big advantage of non-directional trading is the freedom from predicting the market. That's a tough business.
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Trading volume jumped up significantly today, but the overall market averages didn't change too much by the end of the day. SPX opened up well into the red this morning, but recovered early and traded sideways for small losses throughout the day. Then, in the last 15 minutes, it barely broke into the black, closing up one dollar at $1322. RUT traded similarly, but moved back into positive territory this morning and stayed there all day, closing up $3 at $813. CSCO's disappointing earnings announcement last evening certainly didn't help the tech stocks today; trading on the NASDAQ was up 31%. Trading in the S&P 500 was also up significantly, jumping to 3.8 billion shares, well above the 50 dma. Trading volume was up 10% on the NYSE. News out of Egypt near the close of trading regarding Mubarak's continued role in the government created some volatility as the market closed and it is unclear how that may affect the open in the morning as that news is analyzed. News reports on the reaction of the Egyptian people will be a critical part of that analysis. It is hard to predict the effect on the markets.
Initial unemployment claims fell dramatically to 383k, down from last week's 419k and well below the expectations of 410k. Continuing unemployment claims also dropped to 3.88 million from last week's 3.93 million. But that positive news didn't appear to move the markets.
My Mar iron condor stands at a P/L of +$200, delta = -$43 and theta = +$94. The call spreads are greater than one standard deviation OTM and the put spreads are over two standard deviations OTM, so this condor is in a pretty good position.
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The markets opened up in the red this morning based on news of China's interest rate hike and continued concerns over the unrest in Egypt. China's interest rate hike renewed debate over the Fed's monetary policy, with some analysts arguing that quantitative easing should be discontinued. But as the trading day worn on, traders apparently became more comfortable and traded the broad indexes higher with the strongest gains occurring in the last hour of trading. SPX closed at $1325, up $6 and RUT gained $5 to close at $814. RUT set a new 52 week high with today's close. In fact, RUT has not been at these levels since late 2007. However, trading volume was down again today with 3.0 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks changing hands, down from yesterday and well below the 50 dma at 3.5B. Trading on the NYSE was flat with no change from yesterday and volume was up 3% on NASDAQ. Setting new highs on lower volume isn't a healthy sign of a bull market, so be cautious. I am not suggesting sitting on the sidelines; on the contrary, "make hay while the sun shines". But be ready to bail out and protect your gains.
My March iron condor on RUT at 690/700 and 875/885 stands at a P/L of +$340 with delta = -$40 and theta = +$82. The theta/delta ratio is good at about 2:1 but this ratio will deteriorate if this bull run continues higher. With 37 days to go, we have plenty of time to get in trouble, so the trade must be managed carefully.
