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The markets traded sideways until the last hour of the day, when they tacked on some minimal gains once again. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed at $1145, up about $3 and the Russell 2000 Index (RUT) closed up less than $3 at $645. The unemployment report this morning didn't move the market one way or the other; the unemployment rate stayed at 10%, which might have been regarded as good news in a "less bad" sort of way, but over 85,000 non-farm payroll jobs were lost, far more than the 8,000 that were expected. VIX continues to drop, closing today just above 18%. Volatility hasn't been at these levels since the summer of 2008. Since iron condors are classic negative vega positions, this is beneficial for those positions.
This sideways drift for RUT has been helpful for my Jan iron condors that are struggling to move into positive gain territory. My low probability, or short term condors have been handicapped by the adjustments made several weeks ago when the market bumped up. This condor now stands at a P/L of -$480, delta = -$97 and theta = +$160. Normally, I would have closed the 660/670 call spreads today, since they are right at one standard deviation OTM, and my rule is to close spreads on the Friday before expiration when they are within two standard deviations. But I am trying to salvage a small gain out of this trade. The delta of my short 660 calls stands at 17. So I will continue to hold this position into next week to attempt to get closer to a breakeven or the maximum possible gain of $470.
The high probability RUT iron condor has moved into the black, and stands at a P/L of +$540, with a delta of -$195 and theta of +$320. Theta for the overall position of both condors is nearly $500 per day. I am banking on continued subdued market moves to allow this theta to work for me. This is the classic, "do as I say, not as I do" situation. As we move closer to expiration, it makes it easier to take this risk. Stay tuned.
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The markets had another lackluster, largely sideways trading day. RUT traded up in the last hour to close at $642 while the SPX traded up almost $5 to close at $1142. The dollar traded up strongly and that probably weighed on the market. The strong bullishness during the last hour appears to show confidence in the unemployment numbers due in the morning. It seems as though all of the talking heads and news outlets are singing the same song: something to the effect that we shouldn't expect good news; just less bad news will be welcome; the recovery will be slow, etc. So barring a large unexpected jump in the unemployment rate, the market should take the unemployment report in stride. It is a little bit of a concern when everyone seems to be in optimistic agreement; should we worry that a correction is near?
My short term Jan iron condor is still underwater at-$580, delta = -$91 and theta = +$145. The long term iron condor for Jan stands at +$340, delta = -$182 and theta = +$290. My Feb RUT iron condor stands at -$140, delta = -$51 and theta = +$94. Tomorrow should be interesting.
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Pending home sales for November decreased 16%. This news eclipsed more favorable news of factory orders increasing 1.1% in November. The markets traded in choppy, sideways fashion all day. RUT closed down $2 at $638, while the SPX closed at $1137, up $4. Trading volume remains below the averages of 2009, although up almost 50% from the past couple of holiday weeks. Most of the talking heads appear to be predicting a bullish 2010, but it appears to me that the economic news will most likely continue to be positive, but indicative of a slow recovery - not the kind of news that is likely to fuel a strong bull market run.
I began my February RUT iron condor position today with 10 contracts of the 690/700 calls for $1.10 and 560/570 puts for $0.86. I will add to that position over the next few days, perhaps even into next week.
My low probability condor for January is still underwater, but the large positive theta is beginning to pull it up; the P/L is now -$730 with delta = -$69 and theta = +$151. The high probability condor has now moved slightly into the black at +$40, delta = -$137 and theta = +$302. Barring any strong price moves, the $450/day of theta decay will continue to help these positions.
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The markets opened and traded without enthusiasm for either direction up or down; trading remained at low volumes and the markets were essentially unchanged; RUT closed at $638, down less than a dollar and the SPX dropped less than a dollar to close at $1137. The ADP payroll report for December reported a loss of 84,000 jobs - not good, but better than the loss of 145,000 in November. The dollar traded weaker today, but that didn't move the equity markets. Release of the FOMC minutes did not stimulate any move whatsoever.
I added another ten contracts to my Feb RUT iron condor with 560/570 puts at $0.75 and 690/700 calls at $1.03. The Feb condor stands at a P/L of -$200, delta = -$44 and theta = +$92. We now have a total credit of $3,740 for our February position. The Jan low probability condor stands at -$430, delta = -$57 and theta = +$138 while the Jan high probability condor stands at a P/L of +$640, delta = -$115 and theta = +276. So we muddle sideways for now.
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The markets opened strong on this first trading day of 2010 and never looked back. Weakness in the dollar and the surprisingly strong report on manufacturing from the ISM for December fueled the run today. Similar manufacturing reports from Europe indicated renewed strength there as well. All of this data seemed to build on the bullish Chicago purchasing manager's report last week. The SPX set a new 52 week high at $1133 and RUT rose over $12 to close at $638.
Our short term iron condor for Jan on RUT stands at a P/L of -$790, delta = -$54 and theta = +$140, while the longer term Jan condor stands near breakeven at -$80, delta = -$107 and theta = +$280. Our short $660 calls have a delta of 15, so we are nearing adjustment territory if this meteoric rise continues.
