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At the time of this writing, the CBOE has not yet posted the settlement value for RUT (the Russell 2000 Index). However, RUT ranged form $510 to nearly $518 today, so we can be assured our iron condor spreads at 410/420 and 570/580 will expire worthless tomorrow. So our June iron condor was closed at a $4,600 gain on $15,600 of capital at risk for a 29% return. Now, this return is a bit on the high side because we initiated 380/390 put spreads and rolled those up to 410/420; so this augmented the returns a bit as did the fortunate circumstances that allowed us to carry the position into expiration, adding to the gains. See my blog from June 6 for the details of this position and its history.
Our July iron condor is in good shape, with a position delta of -17 (see my blog from Friday, June 12 for the details of this position).
I also initiated an iron butterfly today on RUT, with 5 contracts of the 450/480 put spreads for a credit of $4.35 and 5 contracts of the 530/560 call spreads for a credit of $7.10. I positioned this toward the downside because I am feeling bearish about this market; my position delta is a negative 55. If I am wrong, I will either be adjusting or closing the call side very quickly. You can "lean" your condors and butterflies one way or the other; but be aware that you are reducing your safety margin on one side of the trade and must be prepared to adjust or close quickly. Don't get into an "I'm sure I'm right" game with yourself and get in trouble if it moves against you.
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The Russell 2000 Index (RUT) closed at $507 today. This is near perfect positioning for our June iron condor with spreads at 410/420 and 570/580. Each of the short strikes are over seven standard deviations away from the current index. Barring a $30 to $40 move in the RUT tomorrow, we will allow these spreads to expire worthless. This saves us about $300 in remaining time value and commissions on this position. However, that is not sufficient savings to incur much risk at all. Which is why we would often have closed our condors before now. But we now only have one full day of trading and Friday morning's opening left in front of us and yet we have several standard deviations of safety margin. Hence, the rule: if we have less than two standard deviations of safety margin on either spread on the Friday before expiration, close the spreads on that side.
Our July iron condor on RUT at 460/470 and 560/570 is in good shape, with a position delta of 11. We want to keep our position delta low because this is a measure of how much gain or loss our position will incur with each dollar move in RUT. Position delta helps us monitor and quantify the risk of our position due to price movement in the underlying index.
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The RUT (Russell 2000 Index) closed down at $511.83 today. Our RUT Jun iron condor at 410/420 and 560/570 is in a very good position. Normally, we would be inclined to have closed this trade either last Friday or today. However, I allow the spreads to expire worthless and save the last few hundred dollars of time value and commissions if, and only if, the spreads are > two standard deviations away from the index. Today, the calls stand at over 3 and the puts at over 6 standard deviations out of the money (OTM). We will monitor them carefully until the last hour of trading on Thursday. As long as both spreads are > two standard deviations away, we will allow them to remain open into expiration.
Our July RUT iron condor at 460/470 and 560/570 stands at slightly positive to breakeven at the close today, so we will continue to hold this position.
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The RUT closed at $503.74 today, another down day. This has served to position our June condor at 410/420 and 560/570 almost perfectly for expiration with the calls over four standard deviations OTM and the puts over six standard deviations OTM. We will continue to watch this position, but it is extremely likely that we will allow these spreads to expire worthless.
Our July condor at 460/470 and 560/570 stands at approximately + $150. Our put spreads are underwater, but still within our adjustment window. Our calls are making money, but still not at the levels where we would take them off (see my comments from 6/12 for our closing criteria for this position).
The key here is to play what the market gives you rather than trying to predict the market's next move.
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Our June iron condor at 410/420 and 560/570 on the RUT (Russell 2000 index) is in good shape; today's slight bearish move strengthened its position. Our $570 strikes are now > 2 standard deviations out of the money (OTM).
We also established an iron condor in July today on RUT at 460/470 for $1.45 and 560/570 for $1.85. It is a 20 contract position, so the total credit is $6,600 and the capital at risk is $13,400. The risk/reward ratio of this condor is much smaller than the one above, closer to 2:1. This is a somewhat tighter position, with each spread inside of one standard deviation. We will target to only be in this position for about two weeks. Our breakevens are at $467 and $563, but we will close the trade well before reaching those points. We will close the spreads on a side when the debit to close either is twice the original credit or when we can close the spread for less than half the original credit.
