- Details
- Written by Dr. Duke
- Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
- Hits: 1945
Today's market was quite the carnival ride. When I checked the futures this morning, they looked modestly positive. But the jobs report took the steam out of the bulls, and the markets opened down and traded lower. That lasted until about 10 am ET and then the bulls just started a slow but steady climb higher - and it didn't stop. SPX climbed right into the close at $1951, its high for the day. RUT closed up $17 at $1114. Volatility came in almost two points with the VIX closing at 20.9%. Trading volume spiked upward with 2.8 billion shares of the S&P trading. Trading volume increased 11% on the NYSE and moved up 4% on NASDAQ.
The jobs report disappointed analysts with 142 thousand jobs, up slightly from last month's 136k, but far short of what traders were hoping. The unemployment rate stayed at 5.1%. Yesterday's unemployment claims data were more positive with continuing unemployment claims hitting a new low at 2.2 million. Factory orders also reported today at a negative 1.7% for August, even worse than July's -0.2%. So the economic data wasn't stellar, but it isn't signaling a recession either. The big question for traders is whether today was just a short covering splurge or if we have indeed seen the bottom of this correction. I suppose we will have to wait until next week to get some clues to the answer.
Have a great weekend.
- Details
- Written by Dr. Duke
- Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
- Hits: 1822
Yesterday was pretty ugly with SPX losing $50 in a single day. But the futures were pointing higher this morning and traders moved the markets higher until about mid-morning. SPX weakened and hit its low for the day around 3:30 ET, but then it recovered to close at $1884, with a small two dollar gain for the day. RUT didn't fare as well, losing $7 to close at $1084. But that is consistent with recent trading, with RUT leading the broad markets lower. Volatility pulled back 1.2 points to 26.5%. Trading volume fell off today with 2.7 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading. Trading declined 1% on the NYSE and declined 6% on NASDAQ.
The Case Schiller housing price index moved to an annualized price gain of 5% for July, up slightly from June's 4.9%. The Conference Board's consumer confidence survey increased to 103.0 for September from 101.3. But this positive data was overwhelmed with concerns about a global slowdown.
I didn't expect the markets to retest the lows of the flash crash, but I was wrong - here we are. Interestingly, volatility remains lower than it was during the flash crash. Apparently, the big players aren't very anxious this time around. But that leaves us with the question of whether we are testing previous lows and rebounding or trading lower yet. I don't see the economic case for trading lower - but that betrays my presumption that rational thought guides the market.
Here is an interesting factoid I came across today: companies in the S&P 500 have issued fewer negative earnings pre-announcements and more positive earnings pre-announcements for the third quarter of 2015 relative to the past two quarters. So I continue to think our economy is plugging along, not the strong recovery we would like, but we are heading over the cliff either. So I think we are on the verge of bouncing higher.
- Details
- Written by Dr. Duke
- Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
- Hits: 1924
My conclusion drawn from all of the traders and finance professionals I have dealt with over the past couple of weeks was that the Fed wasn't going to raise interest rates and that was good. They feared a rate hike would tank the market. The Fed didn't raise interest rates and now it is stating to look like the market will trade lower on that news - but it is early to draw that conclusion. The market will have to continue to digest the FOMC announcement and other economic data. But today's market didn't look good. SPX lost $32 to close at $1958 while RUT closed down $17 at $1163. Volatility rose almost two points, with the VIX closing at 22.8%. Trading volume on this expiration Friday was high as usual, so that wasn't the reinforcing sign to the bearish day as it might normally have been. Trading in the S&P 500 companies rose to 3.8 billion shares, well above the 50 dma at 2.4B. Trading volume popped up 56% on the NYSE and increased 60% on NASDAQ.
There wasn't any significant economic date released today, so today's market action may be primarily attributed to the market trying to decide what the FOMC announcement means for the future of the U. S. markets.
I just came back from the All Stars Options Conference held in the NYSE. This is a first class conference - highly recommended. While waiting to get in the building one morning, I noticed a statue and plaque across the street. I stood on the steps of Federal Hall where George Washington took the oath of office for the presidency in 1789. Federal Hall was built as a city hall by the British in 1703 and it was the home of the first U.S. Congress and Supreme Court. The NYSE also has a rich history. They have the letter on display written by Thomas Edison to the exchange offering his ticker tape quotation machine, one of the first treasury bonds issued after the revolutionary war and many other interesting displays - cool place to visit.
Have a great weekend.
- Details
- Written by Dr. Duke
- Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
- Hits: 1881
It appears that the markets have simply replaced a higher sideways trading range with a lower sideways trading range. For several months, SPX wandered between $2040 and $2130, and now it appears that the new trading range is $1900 to $2000. Before the correction, one could argue that the S&P 500 was becoming overpriced with price to earnings and price to dividends ratios near historical highs. Those ratios remain slightly above historical averages, but maybe this correction was a healthy adjustment. And the longer we tread water, the more in-line those ratios will become. The markets opened higher this morning, but then declined to lows around noon. But then the bulls revived themselves and recovered most of the early losses. SPX closed at $1939, down $4, while RUT lost $3 to close at $1140. Trading volume declined across the board with 1.9 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading. Trading volume declined 17% on the NYSE and declined 21% on NASDAQ.
There weren't any significant economic data reported today, and that may have contributed to the lackluster trading day.
On the Friday before the flash crash on Monday, 8/24, I closed the October position we had on RUT for an 11% loss. That took the year to date gains on the Flying With The Condor™ service to +34%. I recently opened a new October iron condor on RUT positioned at 950/960, 1040/1050 and 1240/1250 (the put spreads are split over the 950/960 and 1040/1050 strikes). This position now stands at a net gain of $76 per contract or +9%. Our November iron condor on RUT at 960/970 and 1280/1290 stands at a net gain of $63 per contract or +7%. If we were to close both positions today, we would stand at a net gain of 40% for the year; maybe we should just go lie on the beach for the rest of the year. No, that sounds like retirement in the rocking chair - too boring.
- Details
- Written by Dr. Duke
- Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
- Hits: 1920
The FOMC met yesterday and today and issued their announcement this afternoon. They opted to leave interest rates "as is" and cited concerns about a global economic slowdown as well as continuing low inflation. Four committee members predicted that there will be no interest rate hike this year. The sentence in the announcement on "global slowdown" surprised analysts, who felt the FOMC should only be looking at the U.S. economy. However, our economy is clearly much more intertwined with other economies in the world than it used to be; in that sense, I found the squabble on CNBC on this point a little silly. It was also one more example of the decline in common respect and manners. Is it no longer considered polite to allow someone to express their idea without another person interrupting and speaking over them? The greater human intellect cannot grow when the loudest and rudest person is allowed to dominate the discussion.
Markets have been trading higher this week leading up to the announcement, but declined immediately after the announcement this afternoon. Then the markets spurted higher, only to trade off in the last hour to close at losses on the day. SPX closed down $5 at $1990. But RUT gained $5 to close at $1181. RUT had traded higher than SPX earlier in the day, so the pullback going into the close left RUT with a net gain on the day. Volatility chopped around quite a bit today, but closed about two tenths of a point lower at 21.1%.
Initial unemployment claims came in 11k lower at 264k and continuing claims declined 26k to 2.24 million. Housing starts for August dropped to an annualized rate of 1126k from July's 1161k. However, building permits rose 40k in August to 1170k. The Philadelphia Fed survey declined markedly for September, down to -6.0 from August's +8.3.
The lingering question that seems to be on everyone's mind is whether the low we hit August 25th is the end of the correction or whether it will turn and fall further yet. The price chart pattern on the indexes has been trending pretty steadily higher. The close today on SPX is right at the high hit a few days after the crash. If SPX closes above that $1990 mark a couple of times, I would feel more confident that the storm was behind us. I think the markets are bit confused about the Fed message today. It may take a few days to see a resulting trend establish itself.
