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It appears that our markets are simply not going to move until the Greek debt crisis is resolved. We have been hearing about deadlines for a deal for weeks, and the deadlines just seem to get postponed a few days. Is June 30 a solid deadline? I certainly hope so. The major indexes have retreated into their trading ranges of the past few months. SPX dropped $6 to $2102 but RUT only lost a dollar, closing at $1283. The theme of the small and mid-caps leading the market continues.Volatility increased nearly a full point to 14.1% on the VIX. That seems a little outsized compared to the market moves today - perhaps the traders losing patience are buying protection just in case this Greek saga does have some downside for our markets. Trading volume remains pretty flat with 1.9 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading (still below the 50 dma). Trading volume increased 7% on the NYSE, but decreased 2% on NASDAQ.
Initial unemployment claims reported at 271k, about flat with last week's 268k. Continuing unemployment claims increased by twenty two thousand to 2.25 million. Our unemployment numbers have stabilized very well. Unemployment numbers aren't increasing but we aren't seeing the hiring that goes with strong economic expansion. We aren't putting those people who have dropped out of the labor force back to work.
When the markets spiked upward last week, I closed the call spreads in my August 1100/1110 and 1350/1360 condor on RUT. Today, I rolled out a little farther and sold the 1360/1370 calls. This position now stands at a net gain of 2.5% with position delta = -$40 and position theta = +$66 on 20 contracts. Yesterday, I closed the July condor position for a 19% gain. The Flying With The Condor™service is now up 29% year to date.
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Actually, I am losing patience with Greece and with all of the hand wringing about this miniscule problem in the world. The most valuable aspect of Greece is its object lesson for us.
In response to worries about Greece, the markets pulled back today with SPX losing $16 to close at $2109 and RUT pulling back $12 to $1284. Implied volatility jumped up over a point with the VIX closing at 13.3%. Trading volume edged up but remains below average. Trading in the S&P 500 stocks came in at 1.9 billion shares, up slightly from yesterday, but below the 50 dma. Trading volume on the NYSE increased 4% and trading on NASDAQ was nearly flat with a 0.2% rise.
The final estimate of first quarter GDP was released today at -0.2%, an improvement from the earlier estimate of -0.7%. We will get the first estimate of second quarter GDP growth on July 30th.
I closed our July iron condor on RUT today for a net gain of 19%. Our Flying With The Condor™ trade alert service now stands at a gain of 28% year to date, compared with +2.4% for the S&P 500.
Our watch of the Greek tragedy continues tomorrow (ironic that we know the ancient Greeks for those plays).
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Rumors (or futile hopes) of a deal on Greece's debt drove the market higher at the open today. The markets calmed a bit as the day progressed, but most of the gains held into the close. SPX tacked on $13 to close at $2123. RUT jumped up $8 to close at $1292. Volatility pulled back with the VIX losing one point to close at 12.8%. 1.8 billion shares of the S&P 500 companies traded today, well below the 50 dma at 2.02 billion shares. Percentage losses in excess of 50% on the NYSE and NASDAQ didn't mean much since trading volume was so high on expiration Friday.
The only economic data today was existing home sales for May, running at an annualized rate of 5.35 million, up from 5.09 million. New home sales and durable goods orders come out tomorrow with the final estimate of first quarter GDP on Wednesday.
The bulls seem to be gaining the upper hand after taking a few days to think about the FOMC announcement last week. As long as interest rates remain at near zero, it is hard to see a bearish case for stocks. The soap opera in Greece is causing the market some jitters, but we have had several years to adjust for the possibility of Greece defaulting and leaving the EU. It is hard to imagine those events having much of an effect, unless you bought Greek bonds!
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The markets seem to be locked into this low volume, sideways to slightly higher trading range. I say slightly higher because of the last few days, but we could easily give that back at any moment. The bears can't seem to gain control, but the bulls aren't really very enthused either. SPX managed to gain one dollar today, closing at $2124. RUT closed up $3 at $1296. Volatility continued to contract with the VIX losing half a point to close at 12.2%. Trading volume remains below average with 1.8 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading today. Trading volume was roughly flat on the NYSE and NASDAQ, declining about a half a percentage point on both exchanges.
Durable goods orders were disappointing once again with a decline of 1.8% for May, slightly better than the 1.5% decline in April. But this is going in the wrong direction! Our economic data on manufacturing, services, and employment remain weak. New home sales increased in May to an annualized 546 million. This is the highest level since 2008 - one more positive sign for the real estate market.
This latest push higher in the markets has been led by the small-caps and mid-caps. In and of itself, that is a bullish sign. Both NDX and RUT tested lower prices today before posting small gains. The prevailing wisdom is that the markets are waiting on a deal on Greek debt before running higher. I'm not convinced, but I'm not on CNBC. I think Greece has run out of negotiating time, so hopefully, that news item is about to be put to bed. The question is whether that will propel our markets on to new highs? Technically, we are at new highs now. Could we sell the news?
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The FOMC announcement and Yellen's news conference contained two messages: 1) The economy is improving, but 2) the improvements are so small, we must leave interest rates effectively at zero. The markets appear to be satisfied with this message, having traded up after the announcement, although it is far from a strong bullish reaction. SPX gained $4 to close at $2100, while RUT declined slightly (one dollar) to $1268. The VIX contracted by about a third of a point to 14.5%.
Based on the FOMC members' forecasts for 2015, it appears they either still hope to increase interest rates this year, or have failed to adjust their forecasts lower. Fourteen FOMC members have forecasts of 0.63% for the Fed discount rate at the end of 2015. Those forecasts would probably require at least two interest rate hikes before the end of the year. But the Fed has also lowered its estimate of 2015 GDP growth to 1.9% and continues to use very modest language to describe employment growth.
Trading volume picked up a bit today with 1.8 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading, but this remains below the 50 dma at 2.0 billion. Trading volume rose 10% on the NYSE, but only increased 3% on NASDAQ.
So where does this leave the market? Historical market trends are largely on the side of sideways to weaker trading during the summer months. This Fed announcement assures traders that the Fed is unlikely to move soon or very quickly thereafter to increase interest rates. The market largely sees that as free money. The sideways trading of the past couple of months appears likely to continue. The bulls' strength is evidenced in how quickly each decline is being bought. But you also see the highs being pulled back in short order. Neither side can make a strong case, so, for now, we are range-bound.
My July iron condors on RUT stand at a net gain of $168 per contract or +21%. The August position is up 9%. While today's reaction to the Fed announcement was muted, that may not be the case tomorrow and Friday. Stay alert.
