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Looking at today's market action reminded me of an old joke illustrating the difference between optimists and pessimists. Both fell off the top of the skyscraper, but an observer heard the optimist as he flew past saying, "So far, so good".
SPX lost $12 to close at $1986 and RUT also lost $12 to close at $1161. But both indexes closed today near lows that were hit intraday several times this week. So, the proposition that we are just consolidating sideways and blowing off some of the bullish steam remains feasible. But the doomsday scenario folks are plentiful. And October, the month of crashes, is coming up shortly. Volatility rose a bit today with the VIX closing at 13.3%, up a half point. So today's drop didn't cause any panic, but we'll see what next week brings.
Have a great weekend.
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The markets continue to hold up rather well. SPX traded off a few points this morning but then recovered quickly - buying the dip still works! SPX closed up $2 at $1997 and RUT gained $7 to close at $1172. Trading in the S&P 500 stocks dropped a bit at 1.7 billion shares (the 50 dma continues to decline). Trading volume on the NYSE increased 3% but volume declined 6% on NASDAQ. Volatility is flat with the VIX unchanged at 12.8%.
Initial unemployment claims came in at 315 thousand this week, up eleven thousand over last week. Continuing unemployment claims rose nine thousand to 2.49 million (essentially unchanged). This increase in initial claims is pretty small and well within the range of scatter week to week in this number, but the S&P futures traded off this morning after this report was released. SPX opened lower at $1993 and traded down to $1986 by about 10:30 am ET, but then the steady recovery began, and SPX rose the rest of the day, finally breaking into positive ground just 15 minutes before the close. The predictability of this "buying the dip" behavior is beginning to worry me. Whenever it becomes this obvious, the trading gods like to throw a wrench into the works...
I took advantage of the dip and sold my SPX Nov put spreads at a reasonable price; I sold the call spreads yesterday. It's early to enter November, but since I closed the September position early, I had capital laying around doing nothing. Don't you hate that?
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The markets opened down a bit and sunk lower until around 2pm ET when they started to rebound and recovered much of their losses before the close. SPX traded down to $1996 before recovering to close at $2002, down $6 on the day. RUT gained $2 to close at $1172. Volatility popped up over 13% on the VIX this morning, but settled to 12.7% by the close. Trading volume in the S&P 500 stocks was down a bit at 1.7 billion shares. Volume was up 9% on the NYSE, but up only 2% on NASDAQ. The last three trading sessions on SPX have included this pattern of trading lower, but then recovering to close either at a gain, as it did Friday, or to minimize the loss, as it did today. I find this significant because it suggests the presence of a large number of traders who are willing to buy the dips in this market. On the other hand, not many traders are willing to follow this market much higher. At higher prices, they tend to take their profits. Maybe it will just wander sideways, caught between these two groups of traders and blow off some of the overbought steam.
I have closed my September iron condor position to lock in a nice 13.5% gain early. The October condor stands at a gain of 11% as of the close today. I may close it early as well and enter a November position earlier than my normal practice. The advantage would be collecting a reasonable credit very far out of the money.
There aren't many significant economic reports scheduled this week. Given that, this sideways trading may continue. The wild cards are in the Ukraine and the Middle East.
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You could have made a lot of money this past year or so, simply by buying the dips on the major market indexes. And it happened once again this morning. One of these days, it won't work, and then it gets ugly. SPX opened up weakly this morning and traded lower for about the first hour of the session, but then started higher and ended up gaining $7 on the day to close at $1996. RUT behaved similarly, only its low for the day broke its 50 dma. RUT closed up $6 at $1165. Volatility spiked upward this morning with the VIX moving over 14%, but then it settled back as the market recovered, closing at 12.9%, down 0.6 points.
No significant economic data were released today. We will see the weekly unemployment numbers tomorrow, but they aren't likely to move the market.
The SPX hit a peak near $1990 in late July and that level appeared to be holding as a solid support level until yesterday when SPX closed at $1988. When SPX opened and traded down to $1983 this morning, I think many traders paid close attention (I know I did). But then the same old "buy the dip" thing happened once again. RUT continues to trade more weakly than the broad market, as represented by SPX, and that concerns me. One can certainly make the case that some sideways chop for a few weeks will return most valuation measures back closer to historical averages. But I fear that one of these days, the bulls won't be there to buy the dip...
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The monthly jobs report was issued this morning and surprised analysts with a low +142 thousand jobs; virtually all of the analysts I heard and read were predicting another 200k+ announcement. The unemployment rate fell a tenth of a point to 6.1%. It is interesting to remember "the good ole days" when unemployment rates in the high five percent to low six percent range were considered normal; but we know this isn't a healthy, thriving economy. I have several friends who are still unemployed and many empty storefronts continue to be empty in my neighborhood. This latest tick down in the unemployment rate is the result of more Americans giving up their job search; so they don't "count", i.e., the labor force participation rate dropped again.
But the markets didn't blink. S&P futures were running around a negative $7 before the announcement and immediately began rising after the announcement. The S&P 500 index opened at $1998, yesterday's close, dropped to a low of $1990 for the first couple of hours, but then recovered and steadily rose all day and closed at its high for the day, $2008, up $10. How's that for a reaction to bad news? The Russell 2000 Index wasn't quite so positive, closing up $3 at $1170. Volatility fell off about a half point to 12.1%.
Trading volume was flat with 1.8 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading. Trading dropped off 7% on the NYSE and declined 10% on NASDAQ. So we continue to see market gains on low trading volume. I interpret that as a sign of traders buying, but lacking conviction, so they only buy a few shares.
We continue to see a similar repeating pattern. When the market rises very much, traders get nervous and sell to preserve their gains. When the market pulls back, the bulls buy the dip. If this pattern continues, we could see a sideways choppy market for a few weeks. That could blow off much of the overbought steam in a very innocuous manner. On the other hand, one of these days, some bad news might actually be taken as bad news...
But let's forget about that for now and enjoy our weekend.
