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This article discusses several aspects of trading strategies that are critical to surviving market corrections and also illustrates the factors that are actually irrelevant.
This market commentary article was originally published on the Money Show web site on 11/21/17.
This paper was originally published on the MoneyShow web site on 8/18/17.
Many
conservative income generation trading strategies depend on the time decay
inherent in options pricing for their profits. When I establish an iron condor
well OTM (out of the money), I am selling option spreads and expecting those
spreads to slowly lose value as the underlying stock or index trades within a
channel. Other traders may use butterfly spreads or place OTM credit spreads on
one side only (calls or puts); all of these trades are based on time decay
working in the trader’s favor. This is in contrast to long option positions
that lose value over time if the predicted move does not occur, so time is not
your friend for those trades.
It
is common to see web site banners or other advertisements similar to the title
of this article, touting the benefits of options trades with probabilities of
success of 85-90%. Technically, these trades indeed have a high probability of
success. But when the improbable loss occurs, it will be huge - so what can we
do about that?
Many
people think of options trading as very risky and suitable only for the “high
rollers”. This article briefly surveys how options can be used in conservative
financial portfolios to boost the income from your stocks.
Beginning
options traders often make costly mistakes due to either a lack of knowledge or
misinformation about the basic characteristics of options and their exercise.
Examples of common errors include being surprised that one is unable to close
an index option position on the Friday before expiration, or being surprised by
an unhedged option exercise during expiration. This paper covers some of the
basic concepts surrounding option expiration and how options are exercised. Be
sure you understand the settlement, exercise, and expiration characteristics of
the options you trade.
One
will commonly hear or read the following “rule of thumb” for trading:
Only trade positions with
potential profits of at least three times the potential loss.
This
sounds like a reasonable rule, risking a little to make a lot. However, it
ignores the probabilities involved. Buying a lottery ticket for $1 to
potentially make one million dollars certainly meets this criterion for a good
trade. But we intuitively know that the odds against us winning are
astronomical. This paper will define risk/reward ratios, define the concept of
expected value, and begin to explore the relevance of these concepts to success
in trading strategies.
We
all have a tendency to believe that someone out there has the secret formula or
inside track to making money in stocks and options trading, and if we could
just find that secret, we would be making lots of money with minimal effort. Of
course, that simply isn't true. There is no free lunch.
Beginning
options traders often are confused about the organization of option chains.
This paper covers the basic concepts surrounding which options are available at
any given point in time, and how that may affect the options you trade.
You
have probably heard people refer to options as a risky enterprise, akin to
gambling. And it is true that options trading can be very risky, especially
when engaged in with minimal knowledge and preparation. The average stockbroker
or financial planner does not have sufficient options knowledge to guide you in
the use of options in your portfolio. But that doesn’t mean options cannot play
a role in a conservative portfolio of stocks.
One
will commonly hear or read the following “rule of thumb” for options spread
trading:
When implied volatility is high,
sell credit spreads and when implied volatility is low, buy debit spreads.
Unfortunately,
this is simply not true. The credit spread and its corresponding
debit spread at the same strike prices will always have virtually
identical returns on investment (ROI). This paper addresses the role of implied
volatility in the vertical spread, both at initiation and over the course of
the trade.
Placing
iron condor spreads on the broad market indexes is a relatively conservative,
non-directional trading strategy that may be used for consistent income
generation. This strategy profits as long as the index trades within the
channel formed by the two spread positions. It is best used during sideways or
slowly trending markets. However, the potential losses are huge, so judicious
trade management, timely adjustments, and contingent stop loss orders are
essential.
The
reality of the trading business is that a large percentage of one’s trades will
be losers. Every business has overhead expenses, or costs of simply opening the
doors for business. Trading is no different and trading losses are a large part
of those overhead expenses. Once one accepts that aspect of trading, it becomes
much easier to close losing trades early with minimal emotional attachment.
The
Married Put strategy can be used to help you sleep better at night when you are
concerned about the market's direction. Buying put options is effectively a
form of insurance for your stocks.
Two
emotions, fear and greed, can be lethal to your financial success. Developing
an unemotional, systematic approach to your trading and investments is crucial
for success. This paper will present five guidelines to help you control your
emotions and improve your trading results.
Unfortunately, there are many “snake oil salesmen” operating in options education. They are busy selling the dream of instantaneous riches without effort.