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Slow trading with modest gains characterized today's session; trading volume remained flat to lower. Traders remain wary of global debit issues, persistent high unemployment, and many overbought technical indicators - but the market just keeps grinding out more advances. Earnings reports begin this week and traders will be watching them closely for clues. But it is difficult to predict the market's response; good reports may encourage more buying or it could trigger a round of profit taking. However, weak business results and pessimistic forecasts could begin a pullback. The market has been nearly balanced now for several weeks; it is hard to predict what news may trigger a move. The CPI report Wednesday will be scrutinized for signs of inflation; but that would be a surprise at this point. I just took a quick look at Alcoa's earnings report - doesn't look like good news to me. But maybe the market will be happy with "slightly better".
My April iron condor stands at a P/L of -$979, delta = -$240 and theta = +$600 and May stands at a P/L of +$400, delta = -$81 and theta = +$90. I will be closing the embedded double calendar in the April position Wednesday or Thursday.
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Choppy, sideways trade characterized most of today's trading until the last half hour when the bulls pushed the market to new 52 week highs. RUT closed at $703, up $3, while the SPX closed up almost $8 at $1194. However, trading volume was down across the board; trading on the NYSE was down 8% and trading was down 9% on NASDAQ. Trading on the S&P 500 dropped below yesterday's volume which was below the 50 day moving average. So we have another day of higher highs on lower volume. All the books and experts tell us that's a bearish sign... but it keeps moving up. Another example of why it is wise to trade what you see rather than what you expect.
My April condor stands at a P/L of -$1355 with a delta of -$230 and a theta of +$445. while the May condor stands at +$220, delta = -$74 and theta = +$92.
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The markets traded largely sideways this morning with many traders waiting on the treasury auction for clues; when strong demand for the treasury bonds resulted, stocks rallied briefly, but then began to falter. Some of the losses were erased in the last thirty minutes of trading. RUT matched yesterday's high of $703 but could not hold it, closing at $699, a loss of $2. SPX reached within $2 of yesterday's high before closing down $7 at $1182. Many of the talking heads attributed today's weakness to the financial difficulties in Greece, but I doubt that explanation. I think there is simply insufficient good news to propel this market higher; however, we have not had any bad news either. Hence we are caught in a narrow trading range. Trading volume was up 21% on NYSE and flat on NASDAQ; but it rebounded to above the 50 day moving average on the S&P 500. So we have increased volume on a down day - a bearish signal.
Today's candlestick on RUT was a classic Harami - a weak trend reversal signal. This particular harami is known as a Harami Cross, where the body of the candlestick is very small - essentially a doji. The psychology behind this pattern makes sense: a strong up day followed by a day of indecision - RUT traded up to yesterday's high and then down to a low and rebounded to close near the middle of its intraday range. At a minimum, we have a consolidating sideways trend, waiting for some news to drive the market one way or the other. If you want to learn more about candlesticks, read Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques by Steve Nison; it is an excellent book.
Volatility rose a bit today and that, together with the price action, helped my embedded double calendar back to breakeven. In total, the April position now stands at -$841 with delta = -$129 and theta = +$288. May's iron condor is showing a gain of $520, with delta = -$58 and theta = +$81.
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The initial jobless claims data this morning was a little discouraging with another increase to 460k from last week's 442k, but the continuing claims total decreased from 4.681 to 4.550 million. The markets opened up weakly but then slowly climbed throughout the day to end nearly unchanged or with small gains. RUT closed unchanged at $700 after trading as low as $692. SPX gained $4 to close at $1186 after trading as low as $1175. This is actually a very bullish sign; it shows that whenever the prices drop very much at all, there are plenty of buyers that view those prices as bargains. So while there isn't sufficient incentive to buy strongly and drive the market higher, there isn't a strong bearish case either. Trading volume dropped across the board today with a 10% drop on the NYSE, and an 18% drop on NASDAQ. Trading on the S&P 500 stocks dropped back below its 50 day moving average. Minimal economic news is expected tomorrow but earnings announcements from the blue chips start next week with Alcoa on Monday and Intel on Tuesday. Those reports may push this market one way or the other.
My Apr condor is winding down and now stands at a P/L of -$625, delta = -$155 and theta = +$296. May's position stands at P/L of +$660, delta = -$58 and theta = +$74.
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The S&P futures were lower this morning, but the markets quickly shrugged off that early weakness and rose to set new 52 week highs today; but trading was mostly sideways and gradually upward. The markets were waiting on the FOMC minutes to be released, but then traded weakly upward on that news. Trading volume was muted: up 7% on the NYSE, flat on NASDAQ, and still below the 50 day moving average on the S&P 500. The VIX dropped to 16.2%, approximately as low as it was in late March, but you have to go back to May of 2008 to see similar lows. RUT closed up less than $4 at $701 while the SPX closed at $1189, up $2; these are both 52 week highs. It appears that the bulls don't have sufficient conviction to chase the market higher, but no one is jumping out either. Every technical analyst is screaming overbought, but it doesn't phase the traders; they may not be buying in volume, but they are buying.
My condors are getting pushed into a corner by this slow relentless push upward. April now stands at a P/L of -$1,955 with a position delta of -$210 and theta = +$321. The double calendar I have embedded in this condor is right at its upper breakeven and now stands about $350 underwater. The May condor has surrendered some of its gains and stands at +$280, with a position delta of -$72 and theta = +$82. The fact that theta and delta are similar in absolute value shows the stress on this position. So we wait and see if the bulls can put another positive gain on the books tomorrow.
