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Wednesday’s market spooked traders of all stripes. The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) gapped open at $2383, down $18 from Tuesday’s close, and then proceeded to break through the 50-day moving average (dma) at $2369 and closed at $2357. The bulls reasserted themselves on Thursday and Friday, closing today at $2382, up $16 on the day. This didn’t quite recover all of Wednesday’s losses, but it was close. SPX has traded in the sideways range of $2320 to $2405 since mid-February and today’s close moved us toward the upper half of that trading range.
Trading volume on SPX spiked higher on Wednesday’s decline, but then pulled back as the market recovered. Thursday and Friday’s trading volume remained above average, which acts as a reinforcement of the market’s recovery. Although one could argue that trading volume wasn’t very strong for the past two days, so the reinforcement of the move was modest.
The Russell 2000 Index (RUT) has the strongest sideways trading pattern of all of the major market indices with a range of $1350 to $1420, held since early December. Wednesday’s decline was most severe on RUT, taking the index price down close to the lower edge of this trading range that remained as solid support since early December. Russell recovered weakly yesterday and today, closing at $1367 today, up $6. But this recovery effort fell short of the opening of $1388 on Wednesday. Once again, RUT is behaving more bearishly than the blue chip stocks of the S&P 500. That is a sign of traders’ hesitation in this market. The bulls are in control, but this isn’t an “all in” moment.
The S&P 500 volatility index (VIX) spiked up to 15.6% during Wednesday’s sell off, but closed today at 12.0%. This isn’t back to the very low volatilities we witnessed during most of May, but it is well within the range for most of 2017.
The markets have been trapped in a sideways trading pattern for several months now. The bulls are treading water and supporting this market for now, but that may change at some point. This week’s price action was reassuring, but sideways markets don’t last forever. At some point, the perceptions shift one way or the other.
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The markets opened weakly today, probably fueled by the weak earnings report from Macy's and perhaps the continuing soap opera in Washington. SPX opened at $2395 and fell as far as $2382 before bouncing and closing at $2394, down five dollars on the day. There is a strong support level at $2380 that was established on May 3rd and 4th, and that support was reinforced today. RUT traded in similar fashion, trading down as far as $1380 before recovering some of the losses to close at $1390, down $9. RUT has been trading at or just above $1390 for the past seven sessions.
Today's spike lower sent volatility upward, with the VIX hitting a high at 11.2% before settling back to 10.6%. Trading volume on both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite came in below the 50 day moving average today, in spite of this morning's plunge lower. That tells me that no one hit the panic button.
The price behavior of today's markets reinforces the fact that the bulls are firmly in control of this market. Buying the pull backs remains a profitable strategy.
The resilience of these markets is notable. My conclusion is that a break out to the upside is the most probable immediate future. The fact that volatility didn't completely erase its intraday spike higher suggests today's decline made some traders uneasy. I remain bullish but also very cautious.
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The major market indices continue to trade sideways, and volatility is quite low. SPX closed today at $2391, up less than three dollars. The volatility index for the S&P 500 index, VIX, closed at 10.5% today, near the lows for this year. SPX has been trading in the range of $2320 and $2400 since mid-February. Powerful market forces are arrayed on either side of this market. The bulls are citing a more business-friendly administration, a reduction in regulations and prospects of tax reform. The bears cite several months of stellar market advances, high price/earnings ratios, and an aging bull market. It doesn't seem as though any negative news affects the market. Every dip is quickly bought, but the market can't seem to quite make the break-out to new highs either.
For the last couple of months, I have been loading my portfolio with iron condor positions on the S&P 500 index (SPX), The Russell 2000 index (RUT) and the NASDAQ 100 index (NDX). Today, I sold the NDX May 5375/5400 and 5800/5825 iron condor for a credit of $195 per contract. Yesterday, I sold the NDX June 5200/5225 and 5825/5850 iron condor for $506 per contract. The disadvantage of selling iron condors in this environment is the low implied volatility, which lowers the option premiums. On the other hand, that low volatility is one more sign of the sideways, treading water nature of this market, and that favors these trades.
Don't neglect trade management. Entering this positions and then going on vacation is a prescription for disaster. Be sure you have a clear plan for risk management, e.g., if SPX breaks down through $2300, I will buy one $2300 put for every ten condors. Establish a series of these rules and trade what the market gives you each day. Don't try to predict its movement tomorrow.
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The S&P 500 Index (SPX) closed today at $2397, down $2 for the day. The Russell 2000 Index (RUT) closed at $1392, essentially unchanged (up twenty two cents). But the NASDAQ Composite Index closed up $18 for a new all-time high of $6121. Normally, we see these three major market indices to be somewhat in sync. Most commonly, we draw conclusions for the divergence of the large blue chips represented in the S&P 500 from the small to mid-cap stocks of the Russell 2000.
SPX is bouncing off resistance at the upper edge of a trading channel that dates back to March 1st. RUT has been even more neutral, currently in the middle of a trading channel that dates back to the first week of December. However, the NASDAQ is a different story. That price chart has been steadily climbing higher since the election and today was no exception. NASDAQ is being driven by the high technology stocks that are on fire. Stocks like AAPL, AMZN, FB, ISRG, PCLN, GOOGL and many others are driving the NASDAQ Composite. It wasn't long ago that Google was approaching $500, and I thought that to be rarified air, but no more. Many NASDAQ stocks are approaching $1,000 per share. PCLN closed at $1911 today. We are in the midst of a high tech boom in the stock market. Most smaller companies and the large traditional blue chips were not invited to the party.
I find it interesting that the very success of these NASDAQ stocks is scaring many analysts. Predictions of a correction or worse are common. Price measures, such as P/E ratios and dividend yields do indeed suggest an overbought market, but far from historical extremes. Recent earnings announcements have been very positive with large numbers of companies beating analyst estimates and the outlooks for next quarter have been generally positive. Anyone who has much market experience will be quick to tell you that corrections are exceedingly hard to predict. Bull markets will ignore a lot of negative news and then one day... they won't.
What is a trader to do? I have been buying diagonal call spreads on some of these hot NASDAQ stocks. I am hedging my bets a bit by selling the front dated call slightly in the money. That gives me a lower break-even price, allowing the trade to tolerate some minor pull-backs. But don't take a long nap. This market requires close monitoring.
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We are well into earnings season. IBM was weighing heavily on the Dow Jones Industrial Average today after disappointing analysts during their earnings announcement yesterday. But the heavier weight on the markets is the diminishing euphoria that pushed the markets higher after the election last year. The realities of politics and the difficulty of delivering on campaign promises is throwing cold water on this market.
The Standard and Poors 500 Index (SPX) closed down four dollars today at $2338, but the Russell 2000 Index (RUT) closed five dollars higher at $1367. Volatility rose a bit with the VIX rising a half point to 14.9%.
Trading volume in the S&P 500 stocks ran at 1.9 billion shares today. Trading volume has run below the 50 day moving average (dma) since March 20th. Below average trading volume tells us that the large institutional players aren't panicking and selling, but it also tells you that those same players aren't going "all in" either.
Pull up the price chart for SPX. Draw trend lines at $2320 and $2400. SPX has traded sideways within this channel since mid-February. This sideways trading channel is even more obvious in RUT, and has been in place since early December.
So what should we be trading today?
In spite of the overall market averages trending sideways, there are a few high fliers that deserve a bullish trade. Consider BABA, CMG and ISRG for straight forward bullish trades: long stock, covered calls, diagonal call spreads, etc.
Non-directional options trading strategies are perfect for this type of sideways market. Consider "at the money" calendar spreads, butterfly spreads, and iron condor spreads on the major market indices (SPX, RUT, and NDX).
Good trading.
