Dr. Duke's Blog

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 29 June 2010

The markets opened downward today and never looked back. The consumer confidence index took a plunge to 52.9 from 62.7. That news coupled with concerns over European sovereign debt financing tipped the markets over the edge. The Schiller Housing Index registered the first rise in housing prices in several months, but the index committee chairman said it was likely a temporary rise due to the federal housing purchase credit that expired at the end of April. So that lone piece of positive news was discounted. RUT closed down over $26 at $616 while the SPX closed at $1041, down $33. RUT closed just above its intraday low around $607 on June 7. SPX closed near the intraday lows set on February 5, May 25 and June 8. The last time SPX closed below $1041 was in November of 2009. Trading volume spiked with a 63% rise on the NYSE and a 53% rise on NASDAQ. Trading in the S&P 500 stocks topped 5.4 billion shares, well above the 50 day moving average (dma) at about 5 billion shares.

I adjusted my Aug condor with some Sept puts, and held its P/L to -$170 with a delta of -$20 and theta of +$4. The adjustment has killed most of my theta but this will hold the losses to a minimum while we wait to see if the index will bounce. If it breaks support and drops, I will close the put spreads and hold the long puts. If it bounces back up, I will sell the long put position.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 28 June 2010

Trading volume was very light today, dropping over 38% on the NYSE and volume was down 48% on NASDAQ. Trading in the S&P 500 stocks dropped from about 5.5 billion shares on Friday to 3.5 billion shares today, well below the 50 dma. Initially, it appeared that news from the G-20 summit would be reassuring to investors and the European markets did trade up today. U.S. investors had some good news with personal income rising 0.4% in May while personal spending rose only 0.2%. But the U.S. markets traded largely sideways and downward on very low volume. RUT dropped $4 to close at $642 while the SPX gave up $2 to close at $1076.

I established my Aug iron condor on RUT last week at 550/560 and 730/740 for a total credit of $4,600 on 20 contracts. At the close today that position remains near breakeven with position delta = -$7 and theta = +$79. This market appears to be locked into a sideways trading range for the time being - perfect for delta neutral trading strategies. But it is a nervous market. Watch your positions closely.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 25 June 2010

The major indexes traded upward a bit today, although the Russell 2000 Index traded up rather strongly by $12 to close at $645. This may be related to the fact that the components of the RUT will be reconstituted this weekend. SPX gained $3 to close at $1078. Trading volume increased significantly, increasing 20% on the NYSE and 71% on NASDAQ. Trading in the S&P 500 stocks jumped up to 5.5 billion shares, exceeding the 50 dma at 5 billion shares. The VIX dropped back 4% to 28.5%. It appears as though some of the anxiety in the market was diminished after seeing the final draft of the financial reform bill. Banks and financial services stocks did well today. GS ran up $5 to close at $140. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey also boosted the market with a reading of 76, its highest reading since January of 2008. But the major indexes continue to trade in a broad range established over the past month. If the decrease in VIX continues into next week, that will be helpful to anyone who established their iron condors this past week. So market analysts continue to watch for a trend, but so far, the market appears to be searching for its direction. Have a good weekend.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 24 June 2010

The markets opened weak this morning and traded steadily downward, although with many swings back and forth through the day. The SPX dropped $18 to close at $1074 and the RUT dropped $11 to close at $633. This was the fourth successive drop in RUT and SPX. Trading volume was up today; trading on the NYSE increased 11% and it increased 8% on NASDAQ. The S&P 500 stocks traded about 4.1 billion shares, still below the 50 dma, but up substantially from recent sessions.

The bearish mood on the street is evident from the reaction to the economic data released today. Initial unemployment claims decreased by 19k to 457k and continuing claims dropped 45k to 4.548 million. Durable goods orders fell 1.1% in May, which was less than predicted. NKE and BBBY met their earnings forecasts and BBY increased its dividend by 7%. There is nothing stellar about any of these reports, but it isn't terrible news either. Yet the markets continued to trade lower. Personally, I think the persistent negative, anti-business, and anti-capitalist drumbeat from Washington is wearing down the very individuals and institutions capable of building jobs and digging our economy out of this hole. But, I would welcome your dissent if you see it differently.

Now we wait and see if the indexes break through the lows set in early June; if so, then maybe a new bear market has begun.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 23 June 2010

After choppy trading up and down, the major indexes closed near the unchanged marks; RUT closed down $2 at $644 after trading down to the 200 dma and then bouncing back upward. SPX closed at $1092, a loss of $3 on the day. Trading volume was flat on the NYSE, NASDAQ and flat to slightly increased in the S&P 500 stocks. A 2.2% decrease in new home sales was reported for May this morning; that didn't help the market's mood, but it wasn't really a surprise after yesterday's disappointing existing home sales report. Similarly, the FOMC meeting report in the afternoon didn't really contain anything new, so that was also a market non-event.

A look at the RUT and SPX price charts shows a classic doji candlestick on RUT and a close replica on SPX. These patterns confirm what we already know - this market is seeking direction; the bulls and bears are struggling for control. Both indexes have been pulled back to the middle of their Bollinger bands since hitting the top of the band on Monday. It is hard to predict what news or series of events will tip this market in one direction or the other. Or maybe the choppy trading we saw today will be typical of the summer?

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 22 June 2010

The markets opened modestly higher this morning, but, similar to yesterday, the indexes were pulled back into negative territory quickly and the pace downward accelerated in the afternoon. SPX decisively broke through support at the 200 dma ($1111) to close at $1095, losing $18 on the day. RUT traded similarly, dropping $14 to close at $646. Both RUT and SPX have been pulled back into the trading ranges defined over the past several weeks. For RUT, that range is roughly $610 to $670, and $1040 to $1105 on SPX. Trading volume continues to be either flat or declining as it has been over the last several trading sessions. Volume on the NYSE was up only 3% and was flat on NASDAQ. Trading in the S&P 500 stocks continues to run around 3.5 billion shares, well below the 50 dma at 5 billion shares.

Weak home sales (down over 2%) certainly didn't help the mood in the markets, but it appeared as though the markets were following the Euro as it traded lower this afternoon. News of so-called "savage austerity" measures for several government budgets in Europe appeared to worry traders - although one could argue those measures will be beneficial in the long term. The home sales data also started much more serious discussions of the possibility of a "double dip" in real estate bleeding over into the economy. In general, the mood on the street appears pretty gloomy. All news is being viewed from a pessimistic bias. Trading may be confined within the range of the past few weeks for a while.

When I was evaluating my positions after the close yesterday, I was surprised to see how much of the potential profit for the July iron condor was available. This morning, I closed the RUT July 520/530 750/760 iron condor for $0.20 on each side, resulting in a net gain of $2,140, 73% of the maximum profit available at July expiration. This $2,140 gain represented a 13% gain on capital at risk. I may consider opening my August condors a little earlier than normal to take advantage of the current sideways trading range.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 21 June 2010

The markets opened very strongly this morning on news that China might allow its currency to float more freely on the world markets. But it was a short-lived rally. After running as high as $1131, the SPX pulled back to close down $4 at $1113. Similarly, RUT appeared to be finally breaking above resistance at $670 and traded up to $677 before pulling back to $660, down $7 on the day. It appeared that the strength of the U.S. dollar versus the Euro pulled the U.S. stock markets back from their gains. Trading volume was down across the board with a 30% drop on the NYSE and a 4% drop on NASDAQ. Trading in the S&P 500 stocks dropped to 3.5 billion shares, well below the 50 dma at 5 billion shares. The SPX traded down through the 200 dma at $1111, but recovered to remain in the tight trading range of the past several sessions. The Russell 2000 Index (RUT) also remains in a tight trading range, unable to break through $670 to the upside.

My July iron condor on RUT stands at a P/L of +$2,480, delta = +$9, and theta = +$37. I will be looking for an opportunity to close this position and confirm most of the potential profit for July.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 18 June 2010

The market continues to chop back and forth, seeking direction. Trading volume was up today, but nothing like was expected for a quadruple witching Friday. Trading volume ran up 33% on NYSE, and 11% on NASDAQ, but only 3.9 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks traded, marginally up from yesterday and way below the 50 dma at 5 billion shares. The last three candlesticks on the SPX chart have been variations on the doji, the classic signal of market indecision. RUT closed up $1 at $667 and the SPX raised $1 to close at $1118. SPX has solidly held its support, but it has not pushed forward either. RUT has been unable to break through resistance at $670. RUT's settlement price is $669, so my June condor spreads will expire worthless. The July spread is well positioned with a P/L of +$1,980, delta = -$11 and theta = +$78.

So the watch continues. Will the bull market resume or will we tip over to a new bear market? Traders appear to be more and more skeptical of our economic recovery, so some poor economic news next week might have serious consequences in the stock market.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 17 June 2010

Today's batch of economic data caused many economists to begin to worry that the economic recovery has hit a wall. The Consumer Price Index was the only good news of the day with a 0.2% decrease. New unemployment claims increased by twelve thousand to 472k; many economists were expecting 450k. Continuing unemployment claims also rose by 88k to 4.57 million. Then the Philadelphia Fed Index came in at 8.0, a big drop from last month's reading of 21.4. The major indexes spent most of the day in negative territory, but managed to recover most of the losses by the close. RUT closed unchanged at $666 while the SPX rose by $1 to close at $1116. RUT has been unable to break through resistance at $670 whereas SPX has been stalled since breaking through the 200 dma. The price charts suggest a high level of indecision on the part of the traders with neither the bulls nor the bears being able to sustain a run; the low levels of trading volume underscore that observation. Trading on the NYSE dropped 1% and dropped 7% on NASDAQ. Trading in the S&P 500 was flat at 3.5 billion shares, well below the 50 dma.

For all intents, my June 590/600 710/720 iron condor on RUT is at its end; I will allow the options to expire worthless. The gain is $1,336 or 8.1% on capital at risk. The July condor is in an excellent position with a P/L of +$1,760, delta = -$20 and theta = +$84. 

No significant economic news is due tomorrow, but we have quadruple options expiration, so the trading may be choppy and likely at higher volume. Of course, any kind of overnight news from Greece, Spain, North Korea and others may trip this market. Stocks are cheap by most any measure, but the economic recovery is beginning to be in doubt.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 16 June 2010

It was a wild ride in the markets today; after opening down, the markets recovered quickly but then traded back and forth all day, ending the day with minor losses. RUT traded as high as $672 and closed down $3 at $666; SPX closed unchanged at $1115 after trading from $1107 to $1119 during the day. Trading volume remains low with a 2% increase on the NYSE, and flat on NASDAQ. Trading in the S&P 500 stocks dropped to 3.5 billion shares, well below the 50 dma at 5 billion shares. RUT does not seem to be able to break out of its recent trading range from $615 to $670.

The economic news today was not reassuring for the bulls. Housing starts for May came in at 593k, well below the 680k expected by analysts. Similarly, building permits came in below expectations at 574k. The PPI declined 0.3% and capacity utilization rose to 74.7 from 73.7. Top that off with weak earnings forecasts from Nokia and FedEx and it was hard for the bulls to hold any momentum. On the other hand, the bears have not been able to hold any of the intraday declines.

My June RUT condor stands at a P/L of +$1,176 with delta = -$2 and theta = +$462. July is also in good shape with a P/L of +$1,440, delta = -$22 and theta = +$103.