Dr. Duke's Blog

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 05 March 2014

As one might have expected after such a huge run yesterday, the markets traded largely sideways today. SPX closed at $1874, unchanged on the day after trading as low as $1871 just after the open and then again 15 minutes before the close. RUT gave back $3 to close at $1206. Volatility shrank a bit with the VIX decreasing about two tenths of a point to 13.9%.

ADP's private employment report was released with 139 thousand new jobs, up from last month's 127k. This report has analysts speculating on the jobs report due out Friday morning. The ISM services index reported out at 51.6 for February, down from January's 54.0.

Trading volume also fell off from yesterday with 2.1 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading; the 50 dma = 2.3B. Trading dropped 13% on the NYSE and decreased 8% on NASDAQ.

The markets traded off a bit after the release of the Fed's Beige Book, the minutes from the last meeting. But then they recovered into the close. There wasn't much real news in the minutes; most Fed districts reported moderate to modest growth. A few mentioned the weather as a hindrance to growth, especially in the northeast.

The markets are at an odd juncture. Most measures from the price charts remain bullish, but it has been a long bullish run. Many traders are predicting a correction. But this scene has been playing out since before the first of the year with many doomsayers on CNBC and in the news. But the bottom line is that those who have stayed long this market since January of 2013 have profited nicely - but they must have been asleep for all of these sudden drops and rebounds (or on Valium). That probably explains why very few traders matched the S&P 500's +30% performance last year.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 04 March 2014

It was a little difficult to understand why the market plunged on the basis of the tensions in the Ukraine, and it was just as odd to see the market rally so strongly one day later. SPX shot up $28 to close at $1874, a new all-time high. RUT also closed at a new all-time high at $1209, up $32. And volatility collapsed, with VIX shaving off 2 points to 14.1%. Trading volume was not as strong as those gains might have suggested. Trading in the S&P 500 stocks was basically flat at 2.2 billion shares. Trading volume was up modestly on the NYSE at +4%. But trading volume was up strongly on NASDAQ at +17%.

RUT is now at the top edge of its Bollinger bands; SPX is close, but not quite at the upper edge. Of course, stocks and indexes often track along the upper or lower edge of the Bollinger bands for several sessions. The bottom line is that all signs are bullish, but one has to acknowledge that the market is edgy and ready to head for the exits on any negative news. I have to admit that I don't understand the strength of today's rally. We didn't have any economic news today, but tomorrow will be different with the Fed's Beige book, ADP employment numbers, and the ISM services index. It's hard to predict what this market may do with those reports. Is bad news still good news because it means the Fed will stay involved? We'll see.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 03 March 2014

Concern about the Russia/Ukraine conflict appeared to cause traders to take profits and look for safety. SPX closed down $14 at $1846 and RUT closed at $1176, down $7. As one might expect, the VIX spiked upward two points to close at 16%. At these levels of volatility, the market is on alert for lower prices, but this is still well short of the 18%+ levels that characterize the early stages of pull backs and corrections. Trading volume dropped off from Friday with 2.2 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading. Trading declined 12% on the NYSE and declined even more on NASDAQ at -17%.

The ISM manufacturing index reported a gain from 51.3 to 53.2 in February, but construction spending slowed at +0.1% in January as compared to a +1.5% gain in December. No significant economic news is due tomorrow. Wednesday brings the Fed's Beige book, ADP employment numbers, and the ISM services index. The weekly unemployment claims numbers come out Thursday, and the jobs report comes out Friday morning.

Markets forecast the future, so it isn't any surprise that the news from Ukraine is causing some angst. Depending on the turn of events there this week, these economic reports may not be terribly relevant to the market. The fact that today's market drop was somewhat measured and occurred with lower volume are positive indicators. But each day will be a new market.

My March iron condor has been adjusted and repositioned several times; at this point I have put spreads at 1120/1130 and call spreads at 1200/1210. It is a tight position as we move into the last two weeks of the expiration month. Most likely I will be taking a loss this month; the several adjustments have taken their toll. But the game isn't over yet.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 28 February 2014

I enjoy roller coasters and fast cars, but I really don't care for that type of excitement in my finances. SPX opened this morning and shrugged off the weaker GDP number and proceeded to climb all day, hitting its high at $1868 early in afternoon trading, but then plunged to its low of the day at $1848 just after 3 pm ET - a $20 drop in about 90 minutes!  In the last 45 minutes of trading, SPX recovered much of the earlier loss and closed at $1859, up $5 on the day. RUT behaved similarly, but wasn't able to recover the afternoon losses. RUT closed down $5 at $1183. Volatility ran both up and down throughout the day, but ended unchanged with the VIX at 14%. Trading volume was up strongly with 2.5 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading today. Trading volume rose 13% on the NYSE and increased 22% on NASDAQ.

The latest revision to the fourth quarter GDP number dropped from the earlier +3.2% to +2.4% - a big drop, but at least it is still in growth mode. The Chicago PMI came in flat for February at 59.8 and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey rose a bit in February to 81.6 from 81.2. Pending home sales increased 0.1% in January, a big improvement from December's 5.8% drop.

This market is certainly bullish on virtually any measure, but it remains nervous. The hesitation over the past couple of weeks before SPX was able to break out to new highs is one data point. Today's sell-off going into the weekend is a second data point.

 I am going to put this week behind me and take my honey out to dinner. I recommend you do the same.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 26 February 2014

This morning was puzzling. The index I consider most representative of the overall market, SPX, was only up one or two dollars but RUT (the small cap index) was up $16 at one point. SPX pulled back to close unchanged at $1845 while RUT lost about half of its intraday gains to close at $1182, up $8. Normally, one expects the small caps to lead bull markets higher, so seeing RUT gain strongly was clearly bullish. But, what is wrong with SPX? Why can't it break through resistance? In fairness, RUT ended the day right at resistance. So you could argue that RUT was pulled back in line. Trading volume was slightly higher with 2.4 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading. Trading was up 7% on the NYSE, but was down 1% on NASDAQ.

SPX has been trying to break out to new highs for the past two weeks, but so far they have been futile attempts. This week has been even more tantalizing for the bulls with highs at $1859, $1853 and $1853, respectively, on Monday through Wednesday. The closing high this year was $1848, but the market has been unable to hold highs above $1848. Analyzing the candlesticks on SPX yields a classic case of indecision, or an equilibrium between the bulls and the bears. Monday's candlestick was a shooting star, followed by a spinning top and today's doji. The longer a market trades sideways, the greater the probability of a fast, strong move when something finally trips the market. The market may behave like a coiled spring; when finally released, it takes off. It is also worth noting the resistance levels being suggested by the long upper shadows at $1853 to $1859. Each of those moves has added strength to resistance at $1848.

RUT has been trading more strongly than SPX with higher closes each day this week. In one sense, RUT is catching up to SPX. Whereas SPX rose from its low on February 5th and appeared to slow as it neared resistance about two weeks ago, RUT just returned to its previous highs today; today's close was one dollar higher than the highest close on RUT this year.

The report of higher new home sales this morning appeared to set off the bullish run; new home sales were up to 468k for January, as compared to 427k in December. But it is unclear to me why the rally was principally in the small caps.

Volatility rose almost one point with the VIX closing at 14.3%. This level of volatility is certainly not bearish, so the inability of the markets to shake off January and break out to new highs is not too concerning to the market - yet.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 25 February 2014

As the shooting star suggested yesterday, the market largely traded sideways today with SPX closing down $2 at $1845 and RUT pulled back one dollar to $1174. Today's candlestick was a spinning top, which suggests indecision or a balancing of the bulls and the bears. Neither group is dominant.

Analysts appear to be in two camps. One the one hand, the bulls are touting all of the reasons for the bullish trend to resume and fully expect the markets to break out any day. The other camp is looking for what they regard as the overdue correction of 10% or more. For what it's worth, I believe the market is more likely to be bullish or, at worst, trade sideways as long as the Fed is actively involved. Those who are looking for correction after a +30% year in 2013 are forgetting about the Fed's both strong and unprecedented support of this market. Today's price action reaffirmed the strength of resistance at $1850 on SPX. I wouldn't be too alarmed on the downside until SPX broke its 50 dma at $1817 (and there is solid support at $1810).

Trading volume dropped off from yesterday with 2.3 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks, right at the 50 dma. Trading dropped 6% on the NYSE and declined 2% on NASDAQ.

Interestingly, the VIX dropped a little over a half point to 13.7% in spite of the market being slightly down today and unable to hold its intraday highs yesterday. This suggests the large institutional traders remain confident that the overall bullish trend will hold and that position may be the high probability bet.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 24 February 2014

The markets traded up strongly almost all day. The "almost" raises the question of whether this really was the break-out everyone was expecting to signal resumption of the bull market. SPX closed at $1848, up $11, and RUT gained $10 to close at $1175.  SPX traded up all morning, hit its high for the day at $1859 around noon ET, and then slowly declined in the afternoon. But the last half hour of trading was tough, slicing $8 off of the index. RUT behaved similarly, hitting a high of $1180, but closing down $5 from the high. Neither SPX or RUT are displaying a textbook shooting star candlestick, but they certainly have the essence of the shooting star with a strong bullish run higher, ending with the bears pulling the price back down. Trading volume was higher today with 2.8 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading. Trading volume rose 10% on the NYSE and rose a tepid 1% on NASDAQ.

I look to higher than average trading volume to confirm whatever price move occurred. Today's action is not so clear. Does the increased volume underscore the strong move higher or the pull back late in the day? The one thing that is clear is that this wasn't the clean break-out higher that bullish analysts were wanting to see.

There wasn't any significant economic news propelling this bullish run today, so one has to wonder what tomorrow will bring? At least for the last half hour today, the bears were making their case. But one has to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls. After all, they have driven this market all the way back from the 6% correction on February 5th in only 12 trading days!

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 21 February 2014

Markets appear to be hitting resistance and hesitating. Next week may show us the new direction: either a break-out to resume the bullish trend or continued weakness and possibly a serious correction. SPX lost $4 to close at $1836 while RUT gained $3 to close at $1165. SPX traded weakly sideways to slightly higher most of the day, but weakened around 2 pm ET. Then SPX fell out of bed during the last 30 minutes and closed at its lows for the day. Volatility remains relatively low at 14.7% on the VIX. Trading volume was unusually flat for options expiration with 2.3 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading, only slightly above the 50 dma. Trading volume was unchanged on the NYSE and up 8% on NASDAQ.

RUT settled at $1167.71 and SPX settled at $1841.85. RUT settlement was not an issue for me this month since I had closed my Feb put spreads on January 24th as the market started its pull back and then closed my Feb call spreads on February 3rd as the market started bouncing back so strongly. The net result was a 7% gain in what I considered a tough month.

As I study the charts, it looks like we are hitting our heads on resistance. We may see the tipping point next week - a resumption of the bullish trend or perhaps a sideways consolidation pattern. Some analysts are still calling for an even more serious correction, but that seems less likely given this strong recovery from the lows on February 5th. We'll see.

Have a great weekend.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 20 February 2014

I just returned from the International Traders Expo in New York. It was a great conference and it gave me the opportunity to meet many of you. Thank you for making the effort to contact me. However, the downside was that I was so busy that I didn't write a single blog while I was in New York. Well, I'm back. Is the bull market back as well?

SPX closed today at $1840, up $11. It was another of the now familiar reversal days, where all of yesterday's decline was recovered in just one day. RUT also surged higher, gaining $13 to close at $1162. But the price action of the past four days is interesting; SPX seems to be having difficulty breaking through $1840. Just after the first of the year, SPX was trading in the range of $1830 to $1840, before breaking out to set a new high on January 15th, and then beginning the correction that ended over 6% down on February 5th. But it has been straight up since then. RUT has been trading in a similar pattern, attempting to break out above $1162. Trading volume was pretty flat today with 2.3 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading. Trading volume fell 6% on the NYSE and increased 2% on NASDAQ. So trading volume doesn't really help us validate today's upward move.

Markets opened weakly this morning based on the HSBC China purchasing managers' index falling to a seven month low at 48.3 for February. But then traders latched onto the Markit private manufacturing survey with a positive report of growth in U.S. manufacturing.  I am a little skeptical of a survey I have never heard of suddenly causing the market to pop upward. Other economic data released today was weak to poor. Initial unemployment claims came in at 336k, down just three thousand, while continuing unemployment claims rose by 37 thousand. Even worse, the Philadelphia Fed survey came in at a -6.3 for February, down from a positive reading of +9.4 in January.

I continue to be tempted to take the contrarian view on TSLA. Fortunately, I have resisted the urge. It just continues to run higher. Maybe TSLA is the market indicator - we are heading higher whether or not it makes sense.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 13 February 2014

The markets opened lower this morning but then continued their strong bounce back higher with SPX gaining $11 to close at $1830 and RUT closing at $1148, up $15. Volatility was essentially flat with the VIX coming in at 14.1%, down two tenths of a percentage point. Trading volume was mixed today as the market spurted higher. Trading volume dropped 1% on the NYSE and increased 11% on NASDAQ. As of 5:30 pm ET, the S&P 500 volume data was not available.

If you are looking for economic data to account for this bullishness, you will search in vain. Initial unemployment claims rose eight thousand to 339 thousand, but continuing unemployment claims dropped off by eighteen thousand. Retail sales for January declined 0.4%, even greater than the 0.1% decline in December - since we aren't allowed to mention Christmas any more, maybe everyone stopped buying gifts.

SPX is now about $20 from its all time high and RUT solidly broke out above its 50 dma at $1139. GOOG, NFLX, PCLN, TSLA, and FB all achieved all time highs today. Of these stocks, I think TSLA and FB are the most significant because their fundamentals just don't support these price levels. But that is one of the characteristics of a strong bull market - it doesn't have to make sense; just buy; it's going higher.

Needless to say, this market bounce worries me. SPX corrected 6.1% at its intraday low on February 5th, but that was only on Wednesday of last week and SPX has gained $92 from that low. Could we be setting up the classic head and shoulders reversal pattern? On the other hand, we repeated this same pattern several times last year, with a pull back of 4-5% and then a quick reversal back to make a new high. But I remain cautious. Maybe this time is different?